The Astros: What a Mess

The Astros won 86 games this past year...which was good enough to finish 11 games behind the Cubs in the NL Central. This wouldn't be bad news if both the Cubs and the Brewers (who finished ahead of the Astros also) weren't bursting with young talent....or at least more talent. The Astros don't have the pieces to truly compete for a World Series title over the next few years, but nor do they have a situation where they are in rebuild mode. Unless they would be willing to move All-Stars Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee and Roy Oswalt they are not going to get any younger, nor have any impact prospects coming up. Thus, the Stros seem stuck in perpetual above-mediocrity - just good enough to keep you entertained and to stay into the race until September, but not good enough to actually win anything.

So what to do? Barring a complete tearing down of the roster which would probably entail the trading of Lee and/or Oswalt (there might be a riot in Houston if Berkman was traded - in part because of how popular he is with the fans and in part because how much he loves being an Astro), there are some steps that the Stros can take to improve their chances.

1. Improve the Starting Rotation. There is little doubt that the rotation is the Astros weakest link by far. Oswalt is a given. Wandy still could be a plus pitcher, but let's face it, he's not a #2 at this point. Backe was flat out terrible this last year (6.05 ERA) and Moehler is mediocrity personified (4.56 ERA). The question is, how can they improve?

I would push hard to sign Randy Wolf. While this isn't a game changer, in his 12 starts last year, Wolf went 6-2 with a 3.57 ERA and a solid 1.30 WHIP.

Sign at least one SP free agent. I would push to sign either Ben Sheets, Ryan Dempster or Jon Garland in that order. There are problems with each:

Sheets: Once Milwaukee loses out on CC Sabathia (and once the NYY offer him $150M, they WILL lose out), I would expect them to pony up a substantial amount for Sheets. As talented as he is, he has made 31, 24 and 17 starts the past 3 years. Not exactly the kind of person you want to give more than 2 or 3 years to...and it may take more than that to get it done.

Dempster: Coming off his best year as a pro, he has made it clear he wants to stay in Chicago. With the resources they have, I would be shocked if he signed elsewhere. Still, it wouldn't hurt to kick the tires.

Garland: He's not a top flight pitcher anymore (if he ever was) but he's an innings eater, and would still be an improvement over Backe. Plus, he could be had for a much smaller salary than the above two.

2. Sign a bullpen arm: After declining Brocail's option for $3.6M (which i don't understand) the Stros are in need of another arm in the pen. I would have no problem with ponying up the cash to sign Juan Cruz who has struck out 246 batters the past 3 years in only 206.7 innings. In fact, I would like it if the Astros could sign Cruz to a 3 or 4 year deal, and find a taker for Valverde. If not, you would have two power arms in the bullpen for the 8th and 9th innings.

3. Figure out if Bourn can be a starting CF: There is no doubt that the trade of Bourn for Lidge (along with a few others thrown in) was a disaster. Lidge blew zero saves in leading the Phillies to the Series title, and Bourn continued to discover the fact that you aren't allowed to steal first base (.588 OPS). Either he gets his OPS up to .700, or he is a very, very fast pinch runner.

The Astros can score enough runs, but if they don't improve their SP, they have little chance of making the postseason next year, and even less of a chance of winning a series once they get there.