Now that the important stuff is out of the way, let me say that if UT wins at Kansas and hosting A&M these next 2 games, Texas goes to a BCS game. Period. They are the most attractive school out of the Big 12 for the Fiesta bowl to take, so at worst, they're going to the Fiesta Bowl at 11-1. Not shabby for a team that was predicted to go 9-3 this year.
However, their chances for the National Championship Game are looking about as likely as Obama appointing McCain as Secretary of Defense - slim. Let's look at what could happen and what the results would be:
ASSUMPTIONS:
First, I'm assuming that either Florida or Alabama wins out. If we try and factor in what might happen if either school loses one of their last two games and then that losing team then wins the SEC, well, it will get WAY too complicated. And bottom line, I'm just not that smart.
Secondly, I'm assuming UT beats Kansas and A&M. If they lose one of those games they can kiss the BCS goodbye. And also they deserve to go to a crappier bowl. Kansas is practicing the "Ole" defense this year and the Aggies, well, life is always good when they're this bad. Gig this! First a 4-6 season then Obama's win - not a good time to be in College Station. (of course, when IS it a good time to be in College Station?) [hint: never]
Lastly, I'm assuming Missouri wins the Big 12 North.
Scenario #1: Tech wins out, and wins Big 12 Championship.
This one is easy. Whew!
Result: Tech in NCG. UT in Fiesta.
Scenario #2: Tech wins out and loses Big 12 Championship.
This would mean Big 12 South champ Tech would have one loss, UT would have one loss, and OU would have 2 losses. Missouri goes to the BCS, but with 2 losses, doesn't get into the NCG. the Fiesta takes them since they are the Big 12 Champion. With Tech's loss coming at the end, UT likely jumps them and gets to the title game. However, people may vote USC up higher if neither UT or Tech has won their conference. But the computers would still have UT or Tech far ahead most likely. Thus the Big 12 "champion" would play in a lesser bowl than a Big 12 team that didn't even win its own division. Just awesome!
Result: UT likely in NCG. Missouri in Fiesta.
Scenario #3: OU wins out. South Champion wins Big 12 Championship.
Here's where it gets fun, OU, UT and Tech would each have one loss, and each would be 1-1 against each other. It would go through the tiebreakers until it got to the deciding factor: whichever team is ranked highest in the Final BCS. But who is that going to be? Right now UT is #3 in the BCS, but that gap would likely shrink to a typical LSU student's wein size or disappear (like Miami's football program) since UT would have beaten a 6-4 Kansas and a 4-6 A&M team, while at the same time OU would have beaten Tech and OSU which should dramatically increase their strength of schedule. [that was a REALLy long sentence. Sorry about that.]
Right now OU is ahead of UT by one spot in the coaches' poll (which goes to show that coaches are idiots) and behind them by one spot in the Harris poll. I think it's more likely than not that OU would be a spot ahead of UT in the final BCS poll, but people have switched their votes at the very end before (see final rankings of the 2004 season in which UT vaulted ahead of Cal and into the 2005 Rose Bowl against Michigan. Suck it Cal!!)
The big question is where would Tech be? I think a lot would depend on how close the OU game is. If they get blown out, they will assuredly get dropped below OU and UT since their big wins would have come at home, while their one road game against a top team would have been a blowout. Meanwhile UT lost a close game on the road, and OU lost a close game at a neutral site. If OU squeaks by Tech though, all bets are off. I have no idea. However, style points will most definitely matter at this point! So teams do your best Spurrier impression these last 2 weeks! Run up that score like Cougar High School!
Result: Who knows. Though the team that emerges plays in the NCG. If it's not UT, then UT in the Fiesta.
Scenario #4: OU wins out. Big 12 South winner loses in Big 12 Title Game.
Well crap. If #3 was confusing, good luck with this one. The Big 12 South's winner's NCG chances aned BCS chances period are over and done with. Missouri goes to the Fiesta.
Now, what about the chances for the two 1-loss Big 12 South teams that didn't win the South? If it is OU or UT (if Tech won the South) then one of them probably plays in the NCG ahead of USC, while the other one is no longer BCS-bound despite being 11-1. Think about this. The current #3 and #5 teams in the country could each win their last 2 games, have either the #1 or #4 teams guaranteed to lose, have the #2 team lose....and one of them could miss the BCS. Tech might or might not finish ahead of USC in the event it is one of the Big 12 South teams that doesn't advance to the Big 12 Championship.
Result: Likely that one of the Big 12 South teams that wouldn't have even won its own division of the Big 12 could play in the NCG. Weird, weird stuff. If OU finishes ahead of UT, then UT misses the BCS.
Scenario #5: OU beats Tech. OSU beats OU. Tech wins the Big 12 Title Game.
Tech and UT have one loss (OU and OSU have 2). Tech wins the tiebreaker. However, then it comes down to can Tech hold off USC for the NCG. My guess would be that USC would jump Tech in the human polls, but still trail by a decent amount in the computer polls (since USC's strength of schedule is terrible). If Tech doesn't play in the NCG, they automatically go to the Fiesta. UT likely gets picked to go to the Rose Bowl against Penn St.
Result: (1) Tech advances to the NCG. UT goes to the Fiesta; OR
(2) Tech automatically goes to the Fiesta. UT goes to the Rose.
Scenario #6: OU beats Tech. OSU beats OU. Tech loses the Big 12 Title Game.
And chaos reigns again. Tech wins the tiebreaker with UT as in #5, but now their second loss in the Big 12 title game ends their BCS hopes.
Result: Same result as #2 - Missouri in Fiesta, UT in NCG.
BOTTOM LINE: UT has a slim chance of getting to the Big 12 Championship, but if Missouri beats either Tech or OU, they could still get into the NCG.
I have a headache now.
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